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The Bjerknes Centre is a collaboration on climate research, between the University of Bergen, Uni Research, the Institute of Marine Research, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre.

Seminar talk: MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). An operational convection permitting ensemble prediction system. Challenges and use

Morten Ødegaard Køltzow, MET Norway will give a seminar talk on August 28.

Morten Ødegaard Køltzow

Short biography:

Researcher at MET-Norway since 1999.

Work along the entire Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) production chain (from observations to end users), but mainly with forecast verification, model development, post processing (lightning, temperature, wind, precipitation, cloud cover) and end user contact. 

 

Morten Ødegaard Køltzow has a PhD in Regional Climate Modelling and is earlier head of development in MetCoOp and geophysical development on Yr.no.

 

Title of the seminar talk: MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). An operational convection permitting ensemble prediction system. Challenges and use

Abstract:

The MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) is a 10-member short-range convection permitting ensemble prediction system that has been operational since November 2016. MetCoOp is the cooperation around NWP production between Norway, Sweden and Finland. At MET-Norway MEPS is the main tool for short-range forecasts distributed via Yr.no, api.met.no, thredds.met.no, twitter, radio, television etc.

This talk will give a brief introduction to why we need convection permitting EPS by a few examples of predictability that differs on different spatial scales. Then MEPS will be presented; the MetCoOp organization; the NWP model (HARMONIE-AROME configuration of the Harmonie system); and the EPS configuration including the different perturbation techniques. Several operative and scientific challenges will be discussed. The present quality of the MEPS-system is further highlighted by verification and case studies. A brief description of how MEPS is used in daily forecasting at MET-Norway will be included together with an outlook on further use and development.