By using information on windspeed and insurance data, this doctoral thesis quantify the economic risks associated with windstorms in Norway. Climatic- and demographic changes can cause insurance related damages from storms to increase by 200 % compared to today.
The first step in understanding storm risk involves linking insurance claims data from the Norwegian Natural Damage Pool with high-quality wind speed data from the NORA3 dataset using damage functions. Strengths and weaknesses of these damage functions are analyzed, with all analyses performed at the municipal level in Norway. In the second part of the project, the established damage functions are used to assess the effects of changes in climate and demographics on future economic risks from windstorms. The findings indicate that extreme winds are likely to become even more intense in the future, although there is considerable uncertainty associated with this. Therefore, forecasts of future losses related to windstorms are also very uncertain.
Impact-based forecasting is a new field that focuses on predicting the consequences of extreme events, such as economic damage and service disruptions. In the final part of this project, attention is focused on the possibility of predicting storm damage. Using the developed damage functions, damage forecasts at the municipal level for extreme storm events show promising results compared to traditional forecasting techniques.
This doctoral research makes a significant contribution to the understanding of the economic risks associated with windstorms in Norway. Furthermore, both short-term and long-term economic risk forecasts can help Norwegian society to better prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change.