Short biography
Peter Johnston is a climate scientist at the University of Cape Town. His current research focuses on the applications and impacts of climate variability and change on various user sectors. He specialises in agriculture and water related activities with special emphasis on vulnerability and adaptation options. The uptake and application of seasonal forecasts is of special interest to him. His research and involvements have taken him to many African countries to learn from and contribute to other water and agricultural adaptive practices to climate change and variability.
Recent research included the application of models to determine the financial impacts and sustainable adaptation options for agricultural under climate change scenarios for commercial and small-scale farmers. Other work is focused on the climate risks and decision-making time frames associated with agriculture, water and food security for Western Cape Department of Agriculture, and the impact of climate change on the financial vulnerability of maize, grape, wheat and citrus farmers in South Africa.
Currently he is involved in East Africa, in the CONFER project to develop climate services. His role is in training and capacity building. He has also just concluded a project with Grain SA in building climate resilience among grain farmers in the WC, FS, NW, EC and NC provinces of South Africa. He is actively involved in identifying vulnerabilities in other agricultural sectors such as deciduous fruit, nuts, livestock, and dairy.
He was widely consulted during the recent South-Western Cape drought, and designed, and assisted in developing, a statistical model to predict annual and seasonal rainfall totals for the region. He also advises and contributes to the assessment of water usage and public perception towards drought, as well as fire risk and exposure.
He has numerous publications and he co-authored the South African chapter of Southern African Agriculture and Climate Change, IFPRI, 2013) and “Climate change impacts in South Africa: What climate change means for a country and its people” based on the output of the IPCC 6th Assessment Report He has delivered many public lectures on climate, water and agricultural issues and is regularly consulted by media for comment on topical weather and climate events.
Abstract
Climate services, including seasonal forecasts have long been offered as a service to users in agriculture, water, and other sectors. Progress has been made in improving the skill and accessibility of different forecasts and they are widely anticipated, for example, at the onset of growing seasons worldwide. However, the uptake and application of forecasts can still be improved. Since the failure of seasonal forecasts to predict specific drought conditions, for example, some questions have been asked whether existing skilful forecasting is feasible and whether users of these forecasts can, in fact, gain significant value from them.
We posed questions about the availability, accessibility, usefulness, and applicability of the existing climate products to users and potential users, to understand the needs of forecast users. We also explored the interaction between users and forecasts especially with respect to the impact of and their response to the lack of skill and subsequent reliability.
We relied on the interaction with over 200 forecast users in East and South Africa and in East Africa. Many were commercial grain and vegetable farmers and others were small scale or “development farmers” (approaching full commercial status).
Accepting the fact that there are physical limits to the skill of current forecast products means that their usefulness may not be dependent on their skill, but rather what they are saying about the probable climatic outcomes of the pending rainfall (or dry) season inasmuch as this is relevant to the decisions that users may need to make. It would be essential, however to include the verification statistics as an indication of the skill of any selected forecast.
Results showed that there is value in making co-produced forecasts widely available, even if they do not have a history of high skill, with the proviso that they are easily accessible, understandable, and make it clear that uncertainties exist. The way the forecasts are presented, the additional and complementary information that accompanies them, and how easy it is for users to access them is also critical to their use and uptake.
Arranged date for the seminar talk: June 24, 2024, 14:15-15:00, BCCR Seminar room 4020, Jahnebakken 5.