We use the coupled climate model MPI-ESM for predicting Earth's climate on seasonal to decadal time scales with special emphasis on the North Atlantic region. Results of retrospective decadal forecasts suggest that in a weakly coupled assimilation framework the use of an oceanic ensemble Kalman filter improves prediction quality in the oceanic subpolar gyre over standard nudging schemes for up to 5 lead years. In seasonal prediction the use of a novel ensemble subsampling approach in postprocessing improves the prediction quality of the wintertime NAO on the time scale of 2-4 lead months.
Arranged date for the seminar talk:
31 August, 2018 at 11:00
Place: BCCR lecture room 4020, Jahnebakken 5