Abstract
The global oceans absorb most of the surplus heat from anthropogenic warming, but it is unclear how this heat accumulation will affect the Earth's climate under climate mitigation scenarios. Here, we show that this stored heat will be released at a much a slower rate than its accumulation, resulting in a robust pattern of surface ocean warming and consequent regional precipitation. The surface ocean warming is pronounced over subpolar-to-polar regions and the equatorial eastern Pacific where oceans are weakly stratified to allow vigorous heat release deep ocean to the surface layer. It is also demonstrated that this ocean warming pattern largely explains changes in the precipitation pattern including southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence zone and more moistening in high latitudes. This study suggests that deep ocean warming may hinder climate recovery in some regions, even if carbon neutrality or net negative emissions are successfully achieved.
About the speaker
Jong-Seong Kug is a professor at Seoul National University. He has more than 200 peer reviewed papers and broad research interest that range from climate change dynamics, air-sea interaction and ENSO dynamics, the global carbon cycle, bio-geochemical processes and their climate feedback, to climate extremes, and climate prediction and predictability.
Upcoming talks:
22/4: Jong-Seong Kug on the impact of deep ocean warming on climate change
29/4: BCCR x-themes paleo science day
6/5: Cross-themes seminar on extreme events and tipping points
3/6: Wolfgang Müller on vertical-integrated model configurations
4/6: Cross-themes seminar on the Southern Ocean
10/6: Rong Zhang on Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
19/8: Dietmar Dommenget