Our strategy 2026-2030

Identity: 

The Bjerknes Centre is a world-leading natural science research centre dedicated to understanding the Earth’s climate system.

By combining the strengths of four partner institutions, we bring together expertise across the Earth sciences to study climate 
variability and change from the past to the future. Our research integrates climate observations, reconstructions, and modelling from local to global scales and provides knowledge that 
supports society in responding to climate change.

We foster an inclusive and diverse research environment and are committed to communicating climate knowledge openly and transparently to provide society with trustworthy insights.

Our strategic research priorities for 2026-2030 are:

• Advance fundamental science on coupled Earth system processes, interactions, and feedbacks.

We will deepen process-based insight into how the Earth system works– including coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena, the carbon cycle and biogeochemistry, large-scale climate variability, teleconnections, and tipping elements – to constrain uncertainty and enhance confidence in projections of the evolution of the climate system.

• Lead integrated research on polar and high-latitude changes and their global consequences

We will strengthen our leadership by unifying Arctic and Antarctic research, advance understanding of ocean–ice–atmosphere processes across timescales, their impacts on the carbon cycle and biogeochemistry, and elucidate the consequences for living and global systems.

• Strengthen climate and Earth system prediction to explain variability, extremes, long-term change, their impacts, and thresholds that can drive societal risk

We will advance fundamental understanding of, and our ability to predict, variability under rapidly changing climate conditions. We will determine how large-scale climate change manifests at regional and local scales - providing the scientific basis for climate risk assessment and adaptation

• Advance world-leading climate modelling, observations, and proxy reconstructions.

We will strengthen the consistency, accuracy, reliability and usability of climate information to improve understanding and prediction of the Earth system by advancing and integrating modelling frameworks, observational systems, and proxy-based reconstructions across timescales. We build on our existing expertise and will take a more internationally leading role in these areas.

• Translate climate and Earth system research into accessible, credible insight and engage proactively with society to inform decisions in a changing climate.

We will strengthen our sustained engagement and partnerships with society to ensure our research informs responses to climate challenges, while making climate knowledge more accessible, visible, and actionable and mobilising networks across research, policy, industry, and society to increase its impact.

The Bjerknes Centre’s Strategic Priorities define what we aim to achieve. The Bjerknes Centre Strategic Action Plan sets out how these ambitions will be translated into concrete actions, measurable outcomes, and clear timelines.

The focus shifts from what we want to achieve to what we will do, how we will do it, and how success will be measured. Each priority is therefore operationalized using a S.M.A.R.T.(er) approach (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound), ensuring clarity, accountability, and continuous improvement.
 

For each priority, the plan includes:
• Objectives
• Key actions
• Outputs and deliverables
• Success indicators (KPIs)
 

The action plan will function as a living part of the strategy. The leadership group, together with the four research themes, will actively set priorities, define actions, and adjust plans as needed. This ensures both strategic alignment and the flexibility to respond to new opportunities and challenges.
 

1. Advance Fundamental Science on Coupled Earth System Processes
 

Objective

Advance process-based understanding of coupled Earth system dynamics to reduce uncertainty and improve predictive skill across scales.

Key Actions
• Develop and lead interdisciplinary projects on ocean–atmosphere coupling, carbon cycle, and biogeochemistry
• Integrate observations, theory, and modelling to resolve key feedback mechanisms and roles of internal variability vs. forced change
• Target key uncertainties in climate sensitivity, variability, and tipping elements
• Strengthen collaboration and leadership across Earth system science disciplines

Outputs
• High-impact publications
• New or improved process representation in models
• Syntheses of key feedbacks and uncertainties
• Identification of key mitigation needs informed by Earth system feedbacks

Success Indicators
• Publications in top-tier journals
• Increased # of BCCR scientists with roles in international initiatives e.g., WCRP & WWRP
• Contributions to major assessments (e.g. IPCC-type work)
• Measurable reduction in key model uncertainties
 

2. Lead Integrated Research on Polar and High-Latitude Change 

Objective 

Establish integrated, world-leading research on polar systems and their global 
climate implications.

Key Actions
• Align Arctic and Antarctic research
• Advance coupled ocean–ice–atmosphere studies across timescales
• Investigate impacts on carbon cycling, ecosystems, and global circulation
• Build international leadership and partnerships in polar research

Outputs
• Integrated polar research frameworks
• Cross-polar comparative studies
• Internationally coordinated projects

Success Indicators
• Leadership roles in international initiatives
• Joint Arctic–Antarctic publications/projects
• External funding secured for polar research
• Policy-relevant insights on polar change

3. Strengthen Climate and Earth System Prediction

Objective
Enhance prediction of climate variability, extremes, and long-term change, and their impacts on natural and human systems.

Key Actions
• Improve prediction systems across seasonal to decadal timescales; develop next generation merged approaches
• Elucidate drivers of extremes, compound and cascading events
• Link large-scale climate dynamics to regional/local impacts
• Integrate physical and biogeochemical processes in prediction frameworks

Outputs
• Improved performance of NorCPM and datasets
• Develop advanced data-driven approaches for prediction, downscaling, process emulation
• New knowledge on extremes, variability, and compound risks
• Shed light on the regional to local scale impacts of climate change

Success Indicators
• Demonstrated improvements in predictive skill; operationalization of data-driven approaches
• Uptake of predictions by stakeholders
• Contributions to climate risk assessments and climate services
• Interdisciplinary publications and collaborations with practitioners and social scientists
 

4. Advance World-Leading Modelling, Observations, and Reconstructions

Objective
Develop and integrate cutting-edge observational, modelling, and reconstruction capabilities.
 

Key Actions
• Expand and integrate observational systems
• Advance next-generation Earth system models including data-driven and hybrid modelling approaches
• Develop proxy-based reconstructions of past climate and co-develop with modelling advances
• Improve data assimilation and model–data integration
 

Outputs
• Enhanced datasets and infrastructure
• Model development contributions
• Reconstructed climate records

Success Indicators
• Use of datasets/models by international community
• Leadership in model intercomparison projects
• Data citations and reuse
• Infrastructure funding secured
 

5. Translate Research into Societal Impact

Objective
Position the Centre as a trusted and accessible partner. Deliver relevant climate knowledge and strengthen engagement with society.

Key Actions
• Build sustained partnerships with policy, industry, and stakeholders
• Develop targeted communication products to reach key audiences
• Increase visibility nationally and internationally
• Foster interdisciplinary collaboration beyond academia
• Strengthen communication competencies and involve early-career 
scientists in policy-facing and outreach activities.

Outputs
• White papers, policy briefs and assessment reports
• Stakeholder engagement through workshops and partnerships
• Communication platforms and tools

Success Indicators
• Evidence of policy or industry uptake
• Stakeholder engagement metrics
• Media and public visibility
• Co-produced outputs with partners