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The next BCCR Monday Seminar will be given by Deniz Bozkurt from the Universidad de Valparaíso, Chile. 

Abstract

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most dynamic regions of Antarctica, where interactions between large scale atmospheric circulation, atmospheric rivers, extratropical cyclones, and complex terrain can produce high impact weather events. This study examines a sequence of three storms that disrupted a glaciological field campaign in the northern Antarctic Peninsula during January 2025. Using observations, ERA5 reanalysis, Polar WRF simulations, and operational forecast products, the study investigates the atmospheric processes responsible for the storm sequence and the factors that amplified its local impacts. The results show that repeated interactions between atmospheric rivers and extratropical cyclones, together with a persistent blocking pattern and favorable tropical extratropical teleconnections, sustained strong moisture transport toward the Antarctic Peninsula. High resolution simulations reveal that local topography substantially enhanced near surface winds over distances of only a few kilometers, explaining why the field camp experienced much more severe conditions than nearby coastal locations. The study also evaluates forecast predictability across spatial scales and places these events in a longer term climatological context, highlighting the increasing occurrence of atmospheric river affected days and the implications for future Antarctic field operations and climate extremes.

Speaker information

Dr. Deniz Bozkurt is a Professor in the Department of Meteorology at the University of Valparaíso, Chile, and a researcher at COPAS Coastal and the Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2). His research focuses on regional climate modeling, climate variability, atmospheric circulation, and hydrometeorological extremes in Antarctica and South America. He combines observations, reanalysis, and regional and global climate models to investigate the atmospheric processes driving extreme events, hydroclimate variability, atmosphere-cryosphere interactions, and climate change impacts over complex terrain.